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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union is considering opening formal accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova during a European Council summit on June 25, Politico reported May 21, citing unnamed EU diplomats.

EU, Ukraine: EU Aims to Formally Launch Ukraine Accession Talks on June 25

United States

Germany

Russia

Military & Security

G7 members, including Germany, have warmed to U.S. plans to use profits from Russia's frozen assets as a loan guarantee for Ukraine, the Financial Times reported May 20.

Russia, U.S.: G7 Close to Agreement on Using Russian Asset Profits to Back $50 Billion Loan

Russian troops attacked two locations in Ukraine's Kharkiv region and gained a foothold in a number of Ukrainian settlements along the Russia-Ukraine border, Reuters reported on May 10.

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Opens New Front With Attacks in Kharkiv Region

Energy

A Ukrainian drone attacked an oil refinery in Russia's republic of Bashkortostan, which is located around 1,500 kilometers (about 932 miles) from the Russia-Ukraine border, The Moscow Times reported on May 9. 

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Attacks Russian Refinery in Bashkortostan in Farthest Strike Yet

Economics

The European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Union's lending arm, announced changes to its lending criteria to allow for more direct investment into the defense sector, Euractiv reported May 9.

EU, Ukraine: EIB to Expand Financing on Defense, EU to Use Profits From Russian Funds for Ukraine

Russia's Defense Ministry announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had authorized exercises in order to increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions, AP reported May 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia To Conduct Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises in Response to Western Statements

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill including approximately $60 billion in support for Ukraine by a vote of 311-112, Reuters reported on April 20.

Ukraine, U.S.: House Passes $60B Ukraine Support Package

China

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to address issues such as overcapacity, dumping and copyright infringement and ensure fair competition for foreign companies operating in China during a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing, Reuters reported on April 16.

Germany, China: Scholz and Xi Meet in Beijing Amid Rising Trade Tensions

Assessments

Ukrainian soldiers fire at a Russian position in Ukraine's Kharkiv region on April 21, 2024. 

While initially intended to draw Ukrainian resources away from the Donbas region, Russia's new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region will likely become core to Moscow's war efforts in 2025.

Russia's New Front in Kharkiv Raises the Stakes for Ukraine and the West

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

First-year cadets of the Military Institute of the Taras Shevchenko National University take their oaths on Sept. 8, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

While the law will bolster Kyiv's ability to continue resisting Russia's invasion, it carries political risks and will not let Ukraine deal a decisive blow against Russia.

What Ukraine's Mobilization Law Will Mean for the War With Russia

Podcasts

Why is Russia trying to tie the attack to Ukraine?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of the Moscow Terrorist Attack

Snapshots

Afghanistan

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 14, 2024, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Dueling U.S. and Chinese Diplomacy, a European Council Summit

How does Ukraine's approach to mobilization affect its outlook against Russia?

Essential Geopolitics: Ukraine's Mobilization Dilemma

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

An Air China aircraft takes off at Sydney Kingsford Smith International Airport in Sydney, Australia.

The Weekly Rundown: China Braces for Lunar New Year Travel, EU Discusses Funding for Ukraine

How will the U.S. presidential election affect the trajectory of the conflict?

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Ukraine: EU Aims to Formally Launch Ukraine Accession Talks on June 25

Russia, U.S.: G7 Close to Agreement on Using Russian Asset Profits to Back $50 Billion Loan

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Opens New Front With Attacks in Kharkiv Region

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Attacks Russian Refinery in Bashkortostan in Farthest Strike Yet

EU, Ukraine: EIB to Expand Financing on Defense, EU to Use Profits From Russian Funds for Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine: Russia To Conduct Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises in Response to Western Statements

Ukraine, U.S.: House Passes $60B Ukraine Support Package

Germany, China: Scholz and Xi Meet in Beijing Amid Rising Trade Tensions

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